风电场的大规模接入使得电力系统在进行规划设计和方式安排时需要计及风电出力的不确定性,概率潮流计算方法是在计及不确定因素的条件下分析电力系统运行状态的重要工具。针对当前所使用的概率潮流计算方法的不足,提出一种可以处理多个输入随机变量相关性的基于拉丁超立方采样(Latin hypercube sampling,LHS)的Monte Carlo模拟概率潮流计算方法,该方法同时还具有精度高和速度快等优点,并且不受输入随机变量的概率分布类型的约束。在同时考虑风电和负荷不确定性的条件下,对IEEE14和IEEE118节点系统进行仿真计算,结果验证了所提出方法的有效性和准确性。
With large-scale integration of wind farms into the bulk power system, it needs to take account of the wind power uncertainty in power system operation and planning. Probabilistie load flow (PLF) analysis is an important tool for analysing power system under steady state taking into account the uncertainties. In allusion to the disadvantages of the current PLF methods, a new method was proposed in this paper. This method is based on Monte Carlo simulation combined with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and can handle dependencies among the input random variables. It has many other advantages, such as high accuracy and fast computation. It is uneonstraint by the type of the input random variables' probability distributions. Considering the uncertainties of wind power output and loads, the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method was proven by the comparative tests in the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system.