本文在分析多重套利环境下国际资本对我国房地产价格冲击传导机制的基础上,利用SVAR模型实证研究了2000-2010年间国际资本对我国异质性房地产价格的冲击效果。结果发现:FDI的流入对我国各类住宅和商业房地产价格存在不同程度的正向冲击效应;热钱的流入对高档住宅价格和商业用房价格的正向冲击效果十分明显,要强于FDI产生的冲击;总体来看,国际资本流入对我国商业用地价格、高档住宅用地价格、商业房产价格以及高档住宅价格冲击效果依次增强,对普通住宅及其用地价格冲击效果不强。分析认为,房地产调控要注意防范外源资本的结构性冲击影响。
This paper illustrates the conduction mechanism of international capital on China's real estate price shocks theoretically under the environment of multiple arbitrage. Then it uses the SVAR model to study the shock effect of international capital to the heterogeneous real estate price. Findings show that the FDI between 2000 and 2010 in China have different degree positive effect on residential and commercial real estate prices, especially on the high - grade residential and commercial real estate price, while the hot money has positive effect, which is stronger than FDI. The findings indicate that the real estate macro - control policies should be further concerned with international capital influence. In addition, under the current background of major residential real estate regulation policy, the regulation of real estate should pay attention to the prevention of foreign capital structural shock.