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中文摘要：
金坛盐穴地下储气库作为西气东输的重要配套工程，其主要功能是为西气东输管道的季节调峰和安全稳定运行提供用气，确保长江三角洲地区的天然气用气安全。地表沉降的准确预测是其保证储气库建设和生产运行安全的一种重要手段。先应用盐岩水溶开采沉降新概率积分三维预测模型，基于开采沉降的分层传递原理，对盐穴20a变形收缩引起的地表沉降及盐穴报废垮塌可能引起的地表沉降进行预测。然后应用地表沉降动态预测模型计算出金坛盐穴地下储气库地表沉降的时间影响因素，获得地表任意点任意时刻的沉降预测值。对比分析表明预测值与实测值十分接近，证实传递预测模型较传统预测方法具有更高的预测精度。
英文摘要：
The salt rock caves used for gas storages in Jintan salt mine are the important auxiliary engineering of West-East Gas Transmission. It＇s used for gas peak shaving and ensures the safety of supplying gas in the Yangtze River Delta. The accurately predicting the surface subsidence is the important method for ensuring the safety of the gas storages. Based on the rule of the transferring if one terrane by one terrane, the surface subsidence caused by the shrinking of salt rock caves in 20 years and the surface subsidence caused by the collapse of salt rock caves are predicted by the new probability integral 3D model. Then the time factor of the surface subsidence of the Jintan salt mine is obtained by the dynamic forecasting model and the surface subsidence can be achieved. The predicted value is very close to the measurement value, which proves that the transfer model has more forecasting precision.
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