中文摘要：

从系统论角度出发,考虑危化品货物的理化属性,为海上危化品运输航线设计建立安全评价体系.以模糊集理论为基础并结合相关国际规定,构造海上危化品运输系统的安全隶属函数;根据安全度值构造可信度三角形模型,确定底层因素可信度值;研究系统各因素的模糊性和数据的独立性,采用证据合成理论对系统各指标数据进行融合,进而对系统整体安全性进行定量评价.最后通过实船应用,验证了理论的可行性.

英文摘要：

From the perspectives of system theory, considering the physicochemical properties of the dangerous chemical, the safety evaluation index system of marine passage plan for dangerous chemical transportation is established. According to the relevant international regulations, the membership functions are set up based on the theory of fuzzy set, and the triangle model is established according to the values of safety degree to determine the reliability of fundamental factors. Based on the fuzziness and the independence study and fusion of the factors, the quantitative evaluation of the safety of the whole system is conducted with the theory of evidence. Finally, the theory is verified through practical case study.