中文摘要：

考虑海上危化品运输系统的复杂性,从＂人-机-环境＂系统工程学角度出发,把系统突变分为＂人要素＂突变和＂物要素＂突变来研究其特点。基于系统突变特点建立尖点突变模型,阐述系统状态突变机理。基于突变机理并考虑货物的特殊性建立系统安全综合评价指标体系,制定基于突变理论的安全评价标准。为提高评价结果的精确性、避免主观权重影响,采用模糊突变级数评价法获取系统不同时刻的突变值。通过实际事故案例检验,验证系统从安全状态突变到事故状态的时间变化规律,结果符合实际情况。

英文摘要：

Considering the complexity of Maritime Dangerous Chemical Transportation System（ MDCTS）,the catastrophes of the system are divided into two types,ones caused by ＂human factors＂and that caused by ＂matter factors＂,from the angle of ＂human-machine-environment engineering＂,and the characteristics of the two types are studied respectively. The cusp catastrophe model for MDCTS is established and the catastrophe mechanism is expounded. Based on the catastrophe mechanism,the safety evaluation index system of MDCTS is built,and the safety assessment criteria following the catastrophe theory is set up. The fuzzy catastrophe progression method is used to obtain the catastrophe values of the system at different time points to improve the accuracy of the evaluation results,and eliminate the influence of subjectivity in factor weighing. The calculated variation of the system safety status against time is verified by an actual case,which shows that the result is in agreement with actual system situation.