基于探究泛长三角30个城市投入产出增长是否发生空间俱乐部收敛现象,采用空间滞后模型(sLM)、空间数据分析法、Moran’s I指数、σ收敛指数,对2002—2013年泛长三角30个城市近邻效应和空间俱乐部收敛进行测算,并通过PanelData进行实证分析,得出以下结论:上海与杭州的区域空间关系较为紧密,上海对杭州的溢出效应较为显著,而上海与南京、合肥的区域空间关系不够紧密,上海对南京及合肥的溢出效应很弱;泛长三角整体上呈收敛发展格局,只是在发展速度上存在差异性,上海经济发展平稳、具有较大的发展空间,浙江经济发展迅猛,江苏经济发展循序渐进,安徽经济发展相对迟缓;泛长三角30个城市人均投资对人均GDP的影响较为显著,存在正向的促进作用,这种促进作用较大且具有相同的俱乐部收敛趋势。
Based on the input and output growth of the 30 cities in the Pan Yangtze River Delta, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), spatial data analysis, Moran's index, and convergence index are a- dopted to calculate the neighborhood effect and space club convergence of these 30 cities from 2002 to 2013. Analysis through Data Panel shows that the spillover effect of Shanghai to Hangzhou is significant while that to Nanjing or Hefei is insignificant due to the spatial closeness be- tween Shanghai and Hangzhou. It also shows that the Pan Yangtze River Delta displays an overall development pattern of convergence with only difference in development speed. The last finding is that the per capita investment in the 30 cities has significantly positive effect on the per capita GDP, which also presents itself in the trend of club convergence.