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中文摘要：
全球治理作为一种国际制度安排,实质上是国家之间利益与权力的博弈过程。新兴经济体群体性崛起,重塑了世界经济格局,实力与权力不相匹配的矛盾日益激化,推动着全球治理制度的变迁。文章通过建立发达国家与新兴经济体的演化博弈模型,揭示利益主体权力博弈诱发制度变迁的机理。研究表明,拥有绝对权力优势的发达大国主导着制度变迁的方向;制度也将随着各参与主体拥有权力大小的消长变化而不断演进。文章进一步指出,在权力结构发生调整的情况下,G20取代G7领导全球治理制度是制度变迁的历史必然。
英文摘要：
The institutional change of global governance is essentially the gaming process between national interests and powers. The groups of emerging economies are rising, which makes the world economic pattern reshaped and the contradiction of the strength and power increasingly intensified, thus promoting the institutional change of global governance. This paper establishes an evolutionary game model between developed countries and emerging economies to reveal the mechanism of institutional change caused by the power game between interest groups. The research shows that the developed countries with the advantage of absolute power dominate the direction of institutional change; institution will also evolve with the power of participating entity. Furthermore, under the condition of power structure adjustment, the G20 will replace the G7 to lead global governance institution, which is a historical inevitability.
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