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中文摘要：
基于系统状态转移抽样法,提出了含高渗透率分布式电源（DG）的配电网序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法可靠性评估方法,可以同时计算系统的发电类和配电类可靠性指标。分别建立了非电源元件和DG的状态模型,考虑了时序变化的风电出力、光伏出力、负荷以及上级电源容量约束。在不同充电策略下,蓄电池荷电状态变化情况采用KiBaM模型模拟。将系统的状态空间集合分为发电系统状态和配电系统状态2个部分,当存在非电源元件处于故障状态时,调用配电系统模拟过程,当所有非电源元件均正常时,则调用发电系统模拟过程。通过算例对比,表明了所提出方法的有效性。该方法能够为含DG的配电网优化规划提供参考。
英文摘要：
Based on the system state transition sampling approach,this paper presents a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method for the reliability evaluation of the distribution system including distributed generations（DGs）with high penetration rate.The proposed method can be used to calculate both the generation and the distribution reliability indices.The state transition models of non-power components and DGs are established respectively.The chronological output of wind turbines, photovoltaic arrays and the time varying load as well as the utility grid capacity are all taken into account.The state of charge of battery is simulated by the Kinetic Battery Model（KiBaM）incorporating different battery dispatch strategies.The state space of the system is divided into two categories of the generation states and the distribution states.The system is treated as a distribution system when some non-power component is in its down state,and treated as generation system when all the nonpower components are in up states.The validity of the proposed method was demonstrated by a study case.This method can be used for the optimal planning of distribution networks including DGs.
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