政府消费与居民消费的关系不仅是财政理论需要关注的重要问题,同时也影响到政府公共预算的合理性以及公众福利的改善。基于代表性消费者均衡模型,利用11个省份的面板数据分析政府消费与居民消费的关系及其影响程度。对面板数据的单位根检验和协整分析表明:中国的政府消费对居民消费产生长期替代效应,替代系数为1.04~1.44;进一步分析省际的替代系数也验证了中国政府消费对居民消费的替代效应。由此给出的政策意义是,节制政府消费支出,国民收入分配应更多地向居民倾斜,同时通过减税和加大转移支付力度等方式提高居民的消费倾向。
Government expenditure and private consumption not only are the important issues of financial theory, but also affect government's public budget. Based on the representative consumer model, the paper uses panel data of 11 provinces to analyze the relationship between government expenditure and private consumption. Final analysis shows that there is a long-term substitution between Chinese government expenditure and private consumption, and the alternative coefficient is between 1.04 - 1.44. Further analysis by inter-provincial test seems also to prove the substitution effect. The policy implying from the conclusion is to limit government's expenditure, incline more national income to resident, cut tax and increase transfer payments.