文章利用技术进步有偏的双层嵌套CES生产函数,应用标准化系统法估计方程参数,测算我国劳动力合意结构。结果显示:(1)技能与非技能劳动比的合意值呈现指数增长且增速快于真实值,表明技能劳动需求缺口不断加大。(2)采用大学学历的劳动力存量指标测算劳动力结构,发现其呈现出逐年优化特征且对经济产出的贡献不断增强,但劳动力结构贡献率始终不足10%。而依据专业技术人员比重衡量劳动力结构,劳动力结构贡献不足1%,综合验证劳动力结构还有待优化。
The paper estimates the appropriate labor structure based on the normalized system approach. Results show that: firstly, the appropriate supply ratio of skilled labor to unskilled labor grows exponentially, faster than actual ratio and the supply gap of skilled labor also gradually increases. Secondly, we also focus on the labor structure contribution on economic growth. It shows that the contribution is less than 10% or 1%, based on the two measurement of skilled labor. All these mean that the labor structure in China is not rational and there is still plenty of room for optimization.