中文摘要：

在综合分析文家滑坡区域地质条件、基本特征以及滑坡形成机制的基础上，运用Geo—slope软件的渗流模拟模块，分析了不同水位条件下滑坡的地下水位线特征；进而，利用模拟的地下水位线，综合运用多种极限平衡分析方法对滑坡稳定性进行了定量计算。在此基础上，考虑到滑坡稳定计算参数的随机特征，又进一步对滑坡破坏概率进行了分析，利用Monte—Carlo模型模拟计算得到滑坡的破坏概率。由此综合评判滑坡在不同库水位条件下的稳定性。最后，将正交设计与SPSS统计软件的方差分析模块相结合，对滑坡稳定性影响因素进行了敏感性分析以指导滑坡的实际治理与监测工作。

英文摘要：

Based on the study of comprehensive analyses of regional geological conditions, basic characteristics and the formation mechanism of the Wenjia landslide, this paper analyzes characteristics of landslide groundwater line under different water level conditions using seepage simulation module of software Geo-slope. The groundwater line and other limit equilibrium methods are used to quantitatively analyze the landslide stability. Considering the random characteristics of landslide stable calculation parameters, the failure probability of landslide is further calculated. The Monte-Carlo model is used to simulate the failure probability of landslide. The landslide stability under different water level conditions is comprehensively evaluated. Finally, orthogonal design and analysis module of variance of the software SPSS are combined to carry out sensitivity analyses for affecting factors of landslide stability to guide the practical governance and monitoring work of landslide.