中文摘要：

结合滑坡位移监测数据,从分析滑坡位移演变规律的角度出发,将滑坡位移分解为受其自身基础地质条件控制的趋势项位移以及由外界因素如降雨、库水位变动等影响的周期项位移,应用时间序列分析方法建立滑坡位移预报模型。采用二次移动平均法分离滑坡位移的趋势项和周期项,在此基础上分别采用GM（1,1）灰色模型和自回归AR模型分别对滑坡趋势项位移和周期项位移进行预测,将计算得到的各分项位移预测值叠加即得到总位移预测值。以三峡库区八字门滑坡位移为例,分析对比实测与预测位移–时间曲线之间的关系。计算结果能够较好地体现出滑坡在外界诱发因素作用下位移的发展变化趋势,说明所建滑坡位移预测预报模型效果较好,在滑坡位移预测中是有效可行的。

英文摘要：

Based on the displacement monitoring data and displacement evolution of landslide,total displacement can be divided into trend term displacement which is controlled by its own geological conditions and periodic term displacement affected by external factors such as rainfall,water level changes,and so on.Then the displacement prediction model of landslide can be established by time series analysis.Double moving average method is used to separate the trend term displacement and periodic term displacement of landslide.On this basis,GM（1,1） grey model is used to forecast the trend term displacement;and autoregressive（AR） model is used to forecast the periodic term displacement.Total displacement is obtained by adding the calculated predictive displacement value of each sub-stack.Taking Bazimen landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area for example,it is shown that the result could better reflect the development trend of landslide under external factors,based on the comparative analysis of the measured and predicted displacement-time curves.The results demonstrate that the established landslide displacement prediction model is feasible and effective in the landslide displacement prediction.