中文摘要：

滑坡的位移监测资料通常可用来预测滑坡的变形发展趋势,位移的发展反映了滑坡的变形过程。为了预测在现有条件持续情况下的滑坡变形趋势,将滑坡位移监测数据视为非平稳时间序列,应用时间序列分析方法,建立了滑坡变形趋势的预测模型。以三峡库区秭归县白水河滑坡为例,通过对变形预警区监测点位移实测时间序列的分析,取监测点ZG93和XD-04为代表,建立了时间序列预测模型,从第17个月开始向前做6步预测,分析预测曲线与实测曲线之间的关系,并计算预测误差,结果显示除个别数据点之外,预测误差均在±9%以内,曲线吻合较好,说明所建模型效果良好,从而为判断白水河滑坡未来的变形发展趋势提供了可靠的理论依据。

英文摘要：

The displacement monitoring data is usually adopted as time series to predict the deformation of landslide, and displacement development can reflect the progress of lanslide process. The displacement monitoring data is considered as non-stationary time series, and so time series analysis is used to establish the model to predict the deformation trend of landslide. With Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the time series prediction model is established based on the analysis of practical displacement time series of each monitoring point in the early-warning region, taking monitoring points ZG93 and XD-04 as representation. Six steps of the displacement development are predicted from the 17th month, and the relationship between prediction curves and practical curves show that the curves anastomose well, with the prediction error in the range of ±9 %. The result proves the effectiveness of the model, which provides reliable theoretical basis to judge the deformation development trend of Baishuihe landslide.