中文摘要：

针对现有可靠性预测技术不能很好地反映不同工况下的加工过程对系统可靠性的影响、忽略可靠度和失效率随使用时间变化的规律等问题，将灰色系统理论引入到GO法可靠性分析中，建立起一种考虑加工中心各功能部件在不同工况下的动态可靠性预测模型。以加工中心托盘自动交换装置液压系统为例，首先归纳总结了该装置液压系统的基本结构模型，建立此液压系统可靠性的GO图模型。在此基础上把灰色系统理论中的GM（1，1）模型引入到GO法可靠性分析中，完成了对液压系统可靠度的灰色动态预测。最后通过与传统的静态GO法和FTA计算结果的比较，验证了该模型在液压系统可靠性分析中的可用性与准确性，为预防和控制托盘自动交换装置液压系统故障的发生、改进系统可靠性与安全性、制定安全控制措施提供理论依据。

英文摘要：

According to the fact that the existing reliability prediction technology cannot reflect well the effects of processes under different working conditions on reliability due to neglecting changes of reliability and failure rate with running time, a practical reliability prediction analysis model was proposed by combining the GO method and the grey system theory considering various operating conditions of the components of a machining center. This method was used in reliability analysis of the hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device（TAED） of a machining center. Firstly,through a systematical analysis of hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device of the machining center, its basic structural model was summarized, and the model of GO chart for the hydraulic system was established. Then, the gray dynamic prediction for the hydraulic system was derived based on GM（1,1） model combining the GO method. Finally, the availability and accuracy of this method in the analysis and reliability evaluation of the machining center were verified by comparing the calculated results of this method with that of the traditional static GO method and the FTA. This approach provides a theoretical basis for the prevention of failures of the hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device, the improvement of the system reliability and security, and the development of security controls.