中文摘要：

以陆浑水库控制流域为研究对象,利用流域DEM、土地利用数据、1987—2001年气候和水文观测数据,在率定SWAT模型参数的基础上,以SCS模型参数的变化来反映覆被变化,分析了未来气候变化情景及覆被变化情景对径流的影响。结果表明：2011—2050年在流域落叶林地面积退化30%情况下径流量将增大7.02%,落叶林地面积增加20%情况下径流量将减少8.48%。

英文摘要：

The controlled watershed of Luhun Reservoir was taken as the study object.DEM,land use data,climate and hydrological observation data during 1987-2001 were used for calibrating the SWAT model.Land cover changes were effected by using the parameters of SCS model and the effects of land cover change and future climate variation to runoff were analyzed.The results show that the amount of runoff will increase 7.02% when the fallen leaf forest land area degenerates by 30% and the amount of runoff will reduce by 8.48% when the fallen leaf forest land area increases by 20% during 2011-2050.