中文摘要：

根据2004-2013年的相关数据,基于LMDI模型将山西省的碳排放影响因素分解为人口、人均GDP、产业结构、能源结构和碳强度五个因素.结果表明：人口和人均GDP因素总体上表现为增碳因素,能源结构、产业结构和碳强度因素总体上表现为减碳因素.其中,人均GDP和碳强度分别为增碳因素和减碳因素,但由于碳强度的减碳效应远小于人均GDP的增碳效应,因此山西省的总碳排放量仍呈逐年递增趋势.此外,由于人均GDP的增碳效应在减弱,而碳强度的减碳效应在增强,因此碳排放总量增长幅度呈递减趋势;产业结构因素和碳强度因素对碳排放的年均贡献率并未能像其总贡献率一样表现为负值.

英文摘要：

Based on the logarithmic mean weight divisia index model, this paper decomposed the carbon emissions of Shanxi Province into five factors, concluding population, per capita gross domestic product, industrial structure, energy structure and carbon intensity, using the related date of 2004- 2013. The results reflected that population and per capita gross domestic product showed carbon reinforcement effect and energy structure, industrial structure and carbon intensity showed carbon reduction effect. Respectively, the per capita gross domestic product and carbon intensity were the main reinforcement factor and the main reduction factor. However, due to the carbon reduction effect of carbon intensity was much less than the carbon reinforcement effect of per capita gross domestic product, the total carbon emissions in Shanxi Province still showed an increasing trend year by year. On the other hand, the carbon reinforcement effect of per capita gross domestic product was weakened and the intensity of carbon reduction effect was enhanced, therefore, the growth rate of carbon emissions showed a decreasing trend. Industrial structural factor and carbon intensity factor on annual contribution rate of carbon emissions failed like to its total contribution rate performance was negative.