中文摘要：

【目的】通过改进的突变级数法对中国森林火灾进行评价,了解森林火灾受灾程度和损失情况,为中国森林火灾防灾减灾工作、灾后经济补偿和保险赔偿等提供可靠的依据。【方法】根据我国森林火灾2000-2014年的统计数据,在当前国内外森林火灾研究成果基础上,构建包括受灾森林面积、森林资源损失价值、人均损失价值等17个森林火灾损失评价指标的我国森林火灾评价体系,并分析常规突变级数法在指标重要性排序中存在的主观性和综合值偏高的不足,利用改进的突变级数法对中国森林火灾损失进行评价与分析。【结果】（1）我国2000-2014年总共发生森林火灾119 169次,累计伤亡人数1 747人,累计经济损失8 092 960万元。（2）森林火灾评价体系的A层指标有3个,其重要性排序依次为综合损失、经济损失和实物量损失;B层指标有6个,其重要性排序依次为综合损失、费用损失、资源损失、灾次伤亡、人工设备和林地损失;C层指标有17个,其重要性位居前3的是立木资源损失价值、出动扑火车辆和伤亡人数。（3）各年份综合值调整前后相差较大,初始综合值集中在[0.8,1],而调整后的综合值分布在[0,0.8],调整后综合值的等级和大小更具有可比性。（4）受灾最严重的2006年综合得分为0.745,受灾最轻的2001年综合得分为0.100,二者相差0.645分,不同年份森林火灾评价值差异明显。（5）我国2000-2014年森林火灾总体损失较为严重,且各年损失波动剧烈。【结论】改进的突变级数法解决了常规突变级数法在多层评价指标体系中存在的不足,结果更具有科学性。

英文摘要：

【objective】By using improving the catastrophe progression method,China forest fire losses was assessed to understand the extent of the disaster and the loss of forest fires,and provide a more reliable basis for China forest fire disaster prevention and mitigation,disaster financial compensation and insurance compensation.【Method】Using the statistical data of forest fire in China from 2000 to 2014,on the basis of the current forest fire research results at home and abroad to build 17 indicators to evaluate the loss of forest fires in China,such as affected forest area,loss of forest resources,per capita value loss,etc.Analyzed two aspects deficiency of the conventional catastrophe progression method,one of the aspects is about the rank of the importance evaluation index which is subjectivity and another is the comprehensive value on the high side,and establish improved catastrophe progression method to evaluate and analysis the loss of Chi-nese forest fire.【Result】（1）The forest fire has happened 119 169 times in China from 2000-2014,the cumulative casualties were 1 747 people,and the total economic loss was 80.929 6billion yuan;（2）There are3 indexes of A layer,and the order of importance is the comprehensive loss,economic loss and physical loss.The order of importance of B layer index is：comprehensive loss,cost loss,resource loss,disaster casualties,artificial equipment,forest loss.C layer index has 17,the importance of the top three is：the value of loss of resources,the number of vehicles and the number of casualties.（3）Comprehensive value of the every year has big difference before and after the adjustment,the initial comprehensive value is focused on[0.8,1],and the adjustment of comprehensive value is distributed in[0,0.8],which makes the grade and size of the adjustment comprehensive value more comparable;（4）The evaluation value of forest fire in different years has significant difference,the most serious disaster in 2006 the comprehensive score of 0.745,the lightest 2001 averag