中文摘要：

自1950年以来，中国法定退休年龄与最优退休年龄短期内存在不同步的现象，致使法定退休年龄远低于最优退休年龄。所建模型揭示出人口死亡概率与最优退休年龄的动态经济规律。通过对城镇职工的年龄预测及对其赡养率和缴费率的敏感性分析，认为解决目前财政压力的关键是适当降低养老金替代率和逐步提高退休年龄。

英文摘要：

Since 1950, China＇s statutory and optimal retirement age are not synchronized;the statutory retirement age is much lower than the optimal retirement age. The model in this paper reveals the dynamic economic law of the mortality and optimal retirement age of the population. Through the age expectancy projection of urban employees and sensitivity analysis of their dependency rate and contribution rate, this paper concludes that the solution to the current fiscal pressure is to reduce the pension replacement rate and gradually raise the retirement age.