中文摘要：

近10年来藏北高原人口规模不断扩大,由36.58万增长至46.24万,年均增长率为2.37％,而理论承载量仅为38.12万人.城镇化率增长缓慢,仅由7.65％增长至16.28％,二者发展不均衡.除城镇人口内生增长规模不足和乡城人口结构转变乏力外,人口迁移是重要影响因素.基于该区域主体功能定位和发展方向,计算城镇化空间变异系数、人口迁移活跃程度、人口迁移与城镇化的弹性系数.结果表明：1.2000-2012年藏北高原县域城镇化差异度由29.63％扩大至46.75％,城镇化发展的不均衡性增强,那曲、安多的重点小城镇城镇化发展水平要快于其他地区.2.总迁移率由6.64％提高到8.49％,人口迁移总体活跃程度增强,由非活跃区转变为活跃区的县域明显增多.3.人口迁入率每提高1％,可支撑城镇化率提高4.21％,人口迁移对城镇化影响显著.4.该区域主体功能定位要求将过载人口逐步转移,当前人口迁移以净流人为主的趋势与之不符,需要调整人口发展政策,引导过载人口向重点城镇和重点开发区转移.

英文摘要：

In recent 10 years, the scale of population of the Northern Tibetan Plateau continues to expand, growing from 365,800 to 462,400 with the average annual growth rate of 2.37%, while the theoretical carrying capacity is only 381.2 thousand people. However the urbanization development increases at a lower level, only from 7.65% to 16.28%. They are unbalanced. In addition to the inadequacy of urban population growth scale and weakness of population composition change between urban and rural areas, migration is important influence factors. Based on the main function orientation and the development direction of the areas, the spatial variation coefficient of urbani- zation, the activity of migration and the elasticity coefficient between migration and urbanization have been calculat- ed in this paper. The results suggest： 1. The urbanization variabilities of county territories vary from 29.63% to 46.75% , the disequilibrium of urbanization has been strengthened. 2. The gross migration rate of the areas has in- creased from 6.64% to 8.49%. The overall activity of migration has enhanced and the transition from non-active areas to active areas of the county increases significantly. 3. Every 1% increase of immigration rate causes the ur- banization rate to increase by 4.21% in the Northern Tibetan Plateau. Immigration has a significant influence on urbanization. 4. The main function orientation requires to shift the overload population. The current trends of migration are mainly net inflows, which are incompatible with ihe policy. The population development policies should be adjusted and the overload population need to be guided to migrate to key towns and key development areas.