中文摘要：

后金融危机时代,中国企业的对外投资也正处于一个新的发展阶段,在拥有广泛发展前景的同时也面临着巨大的政治风险,由于政治风险影响力大、辐射面广、破坏力强,已严重影响我国海外投资的安全和利益,同时也影响着我国的经济发展和国家安全。然而,我国企业海外投资无论从历史还是经验看,往往对政治风险认识不足,也缺乏防范工具和防范策略。因此,中国企业对外投资如何对东道国政治风险进行界定、分析和评估,显得愈加重要和迫切。虽然国内学者已就政治风险分析评估做了大量研究,但主要以定性分析为主。本文盘点了我国企业遭遇的政治风险种类,并通过引入理论模型对东道国的政治风险进行量化分析,有助于我国企业对世界各国政治风险的量化评估;在此基础上结合趋势分析法充分反映现代政治风险的特性,有效预测东道国政治风险。

英文摘要：

In post-financial crisis era, the overseas investments of Chinese enterprises had stepped into a great stage with broad development prospects. However, the enormous political risks were threatening the overseas investments. Due to its tremendous impacts, potential huge damage and losses and wide aspects affects, political risks were affecting China＇s economic development and even national security. Regrettably, Chinese multinational enterprises were lack of knowledge and experience of political risks, and had little prevention tools and management strategies and measures. Therefore, it was utmost important and urgent for multinational enterprises to analyze the political risks in the targeted host country. Domestic scholar had a plenty of research on political risks, but mostly on qualitative analysis. This paper sum- marized the types of the political risks which could be encountered by Chinese enterprises, introduced a theoretical model which could help Chinese enterprises to assess and quantify the host country＇s political risks. Furthermore, this paper applied a trend analytical method to fully reflect the modern characteristics of the political risks, and effectively and accurately predict political risks of host country.