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中文摘要：
本文采用岭估计法和STIRPAT模型，定量分析了人口、财富和技术因素对我国制造业碳排放的影响，认为人口和财富因素对我国制造业碳排放存在正向作用，影响系数值分别为0．529和0．2565；技术因素有负向作用，其影响系数为-0．0965。构建了引入人口和财富二次方项的STIRPAT模型，二次方项的系数都为正，说明环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线不适用于我国目前制造业碳排放，即我国制造业碳排放短期内不会出现拐点。最后给出了相应的对策建议。
英文摘要：
Through ridge estimation method STIR.PAT model, quantitative analysis of population, wealth and technological factors on the impact of carbon emissions which China＇s manufacturing industry caused, the results prove that the factors of population and wealth of China＇s manufacturing industry are positive roles in carbon emissions. The values were separately 0.529 and 0.2565 while technical factors showed the negative role of -0.0965. Then constructed and introduced population and wealth of the STIRPAT quadratic model, results showed that the coefficient of the second side for being on the Environmental Kuznets inverted U-curve does not apply to the manufacturing sector carbon emissions in China, that China＇s manufacturing carbon emissions within the industry will not be short-term inflection point, Which made China＇s manufacturing sector carbon emission reduction a wake-up call. Finally, given for the manufacturing of related carbon emissions, proposed reduction policy recommendations.
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