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中文摘要：
为建立聚合物驱产油量预测模型，对比了Weibull预测模型、广义翁氏预测模型、瑞利预测模型及HCZ预测模型的特点及其对聚合物驱产油量预测的适用性。分析影响聚合物驱产油量的因素，将聚合物驱注入量、开发时间及聚合物浓度等主要参数引入预测模型，建立了聚合物驱产油量预测的新模型。应用该模型成功预测了大庆4个聚合物驱区块的产油量。结果表明：预测曲线与实际产油量曲线的相关系数均高于0．985，预测的产量峰值及其对应的聚合物注入量的误差均小于3％，预测结果可靠。该预测模型可用于分析聚合物驱注入量、聚合物浓度、注入速度等因素对聚合物驱产量的影响；所需参数少，计算快，应用方便。图6表2参13
英文摘要：
To establish an effective production prediction model for polymer flooding, the characteristics and applicability of four typical prediction models in polymer flooding were analyzed, including Weibull model, generalized Weng＇s model, Rayleigh model and HCZ model. On the basis of analyzing influential factors on polymer flooding production, several parameters were put into a new prediction model, such as polymer injection volume, development time and polymer concentration. The new model was used to predict the oil production of four polymer-flooding blocks in Daqing Oilfield successfully. The results show： All the coefficients of correlation between the actual production curves and the predicted curves were higher than 0. 985; and the errors of predicted production peaks and corresponding polymer injection volumes were less than 3 %. The prediction is reliable and the model is applicable to analyze the effect of polymer injection volume, polymer concentration and injection speed, etc. on the production in polymer flooding. Only a few parameters are required, and it is easy to calculate and use.
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