中文摘要：

为深入分析供给侧改革背景下粮食最低收购价对我国农产品种植面积的影响,以小麦为例,通过搜集筛选影响小麦播种面积的主要因素,建立多元回归方程,并借助于ARMA时间序列模型预测未来两年间我国小麦播种面积受粮食最低收购价刺激的反应程度。回归预测分析表明,当前小麦播种面积与粮食最低收购价变动呈正相关,但受其刺激的反应程度并不十分明显。与之相比,其受科技进步水平、收入及成本的影响相对较大。最后,从供给侧改革出发,提出了完善我国粮食最低收购价的对策和建议。

英文摘要：

In order to deepen analyzing the impact of lowest grain purchasing price on the planting area of China＇s agricultural products under the background of supply side reform, by taking wheat as example, this article establishes multiple regression equation by collecting and screening the main impacting factors on wheat planting area, and forecasts the response degree of China＇s wheat planting area impacted by lowest grain purchasing price by ARMA time sequence model. The regression prediction analysis indicate that there is positive correlation between wheat planting area and lowest grain purchasing price,but the response degree is not obvious. Compared with that, it has stronger impact of science and technology progress, income and cost. At last, this article puts forward the countermeasure to improve China＇s lowest grain purchasing price from the reform of supply side.