科学合理地对煤炭资源采矿权进行估价是最优配置煤炭资源的关键所在。随着煤炭资源采矿权交易市场的快速发展,案例估价方法将在煤炭资源采矿权估价中变得越来越重要。目前,国内外研究仍然没有建立起合适的案例选取准则和相似度模型。运用案例推理和现代统计学等理论和方法,对属性指标、属性强度函数、标的采矿权、案例采矿权以及案例相似度等关键概念进行了界定;建立了属性强度函数已知情形下的煤炭资源采矿权案例选取准则、案例相似度模型、估价模型和估价流程。通过一煤炭资源采矿权实例,对该模型进行了应用研究。研究结果表明:运用煤炭资源采矿权案例估价方法估价出的结果非常接近该采矿权的最后交易价格;在存在一定数量的可比较采矿权案例前提下,案例估价方法较其他方法所需数据较少,也更为高效和直接。
Evaluating coal mining rights scientifically is critical to realize resources optimal allocation. With the rapid development of coal mining rights market, the case-based evaluation method becomes more important in coal mining rights evaluation. Currently, the case-based mining right evaluation methods do not solve the key problems such as the criterion of case selection and the set-up of a similarity model. Using case-based reasoning and statistics, we define the important concepts such as attribute index, attribute strength function, underlying mining right, case mining right, and case similarity. We then establish case selection criteria and the similarity model under the condition that the attribute strength function is known, and build the ease-based evaluation model of coal resource mining right and its process. For a practical case of coal mining rights, we apply this model. The results show that the price obtained by using case-based coal mining rights evaluation method is very close to the final deal price, and the case- based evaluation method is more effective and direct, and it requires less data than other evaluation methods with the precondition of existence of certain amount of comparable exchange targets.