中文摘要：

为预测陕西省未来煤炭消费量,筛选影响陕西省煤炭消费量的因素,使用1995—2012年间各因素及能源消费量数据,采用遗传算法和模拟退火法混合（GA—SA）方法优化二次能源评估模型,设置基准和新常态两种情景,得出不同情景下陕西省煤炭资源的消费量并提出政策建议。结果显示,在新常态情景下,到2020年,陕西省煤炭消费量为11318.40万t标准煤;到2030年,陕西省煤炭消费量为11984.91万t标准煤;到2050年陕西省煤炭消费量为14249.45万t标准煤。

英文摘要：

To forecast the coal consumption in Shaanxi province in the future,the paper use facts and energy consumption data from year 1995 to 2012 to screening of influence factors of coal consumption in Shaanxi province and use GA-SA method（Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing） to optimization secondary energy evaluation model,it sets up baseline and the new normal scenes,obtained the coal consumption of Shaanxi province and put forward policy suggestions.The result says that,under the new normal scene,by 2020,the coal consumption of Shaanxi province is 11318.40 tons of standard coal,by 2030,the coal consumption of Shaanxi province is11984.91 tons of standard coal,by 2050,the coal consumption of Shaanxi province is 14249.45 tons of standard coal.