中文摘要：

针对一次性投资决策理论与方法在石油勘探项目分阶段投资决策中应用的局限性,运用实物期权中的序列投资决策理论与方法,假设勘探储量转让价格服从跳跃扩散过程,构建了石油勘探项目分阶段投资的最优时机选择模型,逆序求解得出各阶段最优投资时机临界值的解析表达式,在此基础上通过案例演算对比分析了一次性投资和分阶段投资的最优时机决策规则.研究结果表明：一次性投资下的最优时机临界值高于分阶段投资下的最优时机临界值,且各阶段的最优投资时机临界值随勘探进程的不断深入呈现逐渐下降的趋势.

英文摘要：

One-time investment decision theory and methods have some applied limitations in multi-stage investments in petroleum exploration projects.This paper established the optimal investment timing model of petroleum exploration projects and derived the analytical solutions to the optimal investment timing of each stage,using the sequential investment theory and methods of real options and assuming the explored reserve transferred prices to follow the jump diffusion process.Then it comparatively analyzed the optimal decision rules of one-time investment and multi-stage investments by the use of empirical case.The results showed that the critical value under optimal rules of the one-time investment was higher than the critical value under optimal rules of the multi-stage investments.In addition,the critical value of investments in all stages showed a gradual decline trend with the exploring process.It concluded that making decisions sequentially could not only avoid the risk of missing the investment opportunities or investments mistakes effectively,but also better grasp the dynamics of changes in the uncertainties of the various stages in the investment,and select the optimal investment timing.