中文摘要：

目的通过风险评估以确定H7N9禽流感疫情在深圳市宝安区扩散、流行的可能性,为进一步制订针对性的应急预案和工作方案提供理论基础和依据。方法监测方法按照《全国流感监测方案（2012年版）》、《人感染H7N9禽流感疫情防控方案（第二版）》等方案开展监测;通过专家会商法对此次人感染H7N9禽流感疫情的风险因素进行识别、分析,做出风险评价。结果这次人感染H7N9禽流感疫情在宝安区传播流行的风险等级为低,不排除再发生病例的可能性。结论宝安区在处理人感染H7N9禽流感疫情中,运用专家会商法开展突发事件公共卫生风险评估,指导疫情防控工作,取得了很好的实效。

英文摘要：

Objective To determine the possibility of diffusion of H7N9 avian influenza in Baoan District,Shenzhen and provide theoretical basis for the emergency plan and program of work. Methods Surveillance was done according to ＂National influenza surveillance schemes（2012 edition）＂ and ＂Prevention and control protocol of human infection with avian influenza A（ H7N9） virus（second edition）＂of China. ＂; The experts identify and analyze the risk factors of human infec-tion with the H7N9 avian influenza by discussion, then evaluate the risk. Results The risk level of human infection with the H7N9 avian flu in Baoan is low, but not excluding the possibility of reoccurrence of cases. Conclusion The methods of expert discussion achieved good results to develop risk assessment of human infection with avian influenza A（H7N9）virus.