中文摘要：

随着航空运输业的快速发展,航班延误及传播问题越来越严重.本文建立基于航班串的贝叶斯网络模型模拟航班延误波及和航班间延误的相互关系,揭示不正常运营条件对航班计划可靠性的影响.根据对航班运营可靠性的分析找出航班串中的薄弱环节,即关键机场,运用加权马尔科夫链模型对关键机场的整体延误状态进行预测,反映机场随机因素对航班串中延误传播的影响.从而更准确地预测航班延误状况,并根据预测结果对航班计划进行相应调整,以提高航班计划运营可靠性.

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of air transport industry, the problem of flight delay and propagation is becoming more and more serious. In this paper, a Bayesian network model based on flight string is established to simulate the relationship between delay propagation and flight delays, and to indicate the impact of abnormal operation conditions on the reliability of the flight plan. According to the reliability of flight operations, we find out the weak link of string, namely the key airport. And by using the weighted Markov chain model to predict overall delayed state of the key airport, reflecting the impact of airport random factors on the spread of flight delays in the string. Therefore, it is more accurate to predict the flight delay. According to the forecast results, the flight plan is adjusted accordingly, so as to improve the reliability of the flight plan.