中文摘要：

基于2005-2014年中国与＂丝绸之路经济带＂国家农产品贸易的面板数据,运用引力模型,从GDP、人口、地理距离、人均GDP差额、制度安排等方面对中国与其贸易流量和潜力进行分析、预测。中国与丝绸之路经济带沿线39个国家农产品贸易量呈持续增长的态势,贸易逆差也呈扩大趋势,双方农产品存在极大的互补性;经济总量、人口规模与双边的贸易量成正比,而国家间距离、人均GDP差距则对贸易有负向的影响;区域经济一体化组织在不同程度上促进了农产品贸易的发展,其中,SCO（上海合作组织）的促进作用明显,WTO、APEC的影响作用较小;中国与大多沿线国家贸易潜力巨大,有待进一步开发。

英文摘要：

Based on 2005-2014 panel data of agricultural produce trade between China and ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂ countries, the paper uses the gravity model to analyze and forecast China＇s trade flow and potential to them from GDP, population, geographical distance, per capita GDP difference, institutional arrangements and other aspects. Agricultural produce trade volume between China and 39 countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt showed a sustained growth trend, and trade deficit also showed an increasing trend, showing a great complementarity in agricultural produce ; the to- tal amount of economy and population scale are directly proportional to the volume of bilateral trade, while the distance between countries and the per capita GDP gap have a negative impact on trade; Regional Economic Integration Organiza- tion has promoted the development of agricultural produce trade to some extent, among them, the promotion effect of SCO （Shanghai Cooperation Organization） is obvious, WTO and APEC are less; China＇s trade potential with most of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt is big, pending further development.