中文摘要：

在农业劳动力和农业用地非农化趋势不可逆转的背景下,中国农业产出的可持续增长唯有依靠技术进步。现代农业技术是以物质资本和人力资本为载体的,农村人口转型带来的农业人力资本供给的增长,将成为中国现代农业技术体系构建的不可或缺的条件之一。中国1985-2012年间30个省（市、自治区）面板数据的实证分析结果表明,东、中、西部地区不同的技术进步水平对农业增长起到不同程度的促进作用,而人口生产由数量偏好（高生育率）向质量偏好（高人力资本积累率）转变,即人口转型与农业机械化水平和化肥施用量之间均具有正相关关系,表明人口转型已成为影响当前中国农业技术进步的重要因素之一。随着工业化和城市化的推进,人口转型已成为农业可持续增长的唯一有效途径。

英文摘要：

At the background of non-agriculture unconvertible trend of agricultural labor and land,the sustainable growth of China＇s agricultural output only relies on technological progress.As modern agricultural technology is based on physical capital and human capital,rural demographic transition has been improving the supply of agricultural human capital,which will become one of the indispensable conditions to establish modern agricultural technology system.Based on empirical analysis of 30provinces＇ panel data from 1985~2000,the difference of technological progress and the influencing factors of agricultural growth in eastern,middle and western provinces is analyzed in this paper.The models verify that the demographic transition which means population production change from quantity preference（high fertility）to quality preference（high human capital accumulation rate）has a positive influence on agricultural machinery level and fertilizer use.The conclusion shows that demographic transition has become one of the most important factors of agricultural technology progress.Furthermore,with the progressing of urbanization and industrialization,demographic transition has become the only effective way of agricultural sustainable growth in China.