中文摘要：

传统农业、工业化农业和现代农业分别存在马尔萨斯稳态、索洛稳态和现代持续增长稳态三种不同的产出增长结构。传统农业经由工业化农业向现代农业的发展,亦即马尔萨斯稳态经索洛稳态向现代持续增长稳态的渐进过渡。离开工业化的外部冲击,难以设想突破传统农业低技术均衡的前一种过渡;而人口生产转型则是工业化农业成长为现代农业的内生动力。当前中国农业发展政策调节的基本目标,仍是通过劳动力转移继续完成马尔萨斯稳态向索洛稳态的过渡,同时应前瞻性地为人力资本引入农业生产创设条件。

英文摘要：

Malthus steady state,Solow steady state and modern sustainable growth steady state respectively exist in traditional agriculture,industrial agriculture and modern agriculture.The process traditional agriculture developing into modern agriculture by industrial agriculture is a gradual transition from Malthus steady state to modern sustainable growth steady state by Solow steady state.It is hard to imagine a breakthrough in low technology balance of traditional agricultural without the external shock of industrialization.While the demographic transition is the endogenous dynamic from industrial agriculture to modern agriculture,at present,the basic aim of China＇s agricultural development policy is still to complete the transition from Malthus steady state to Solow steady state by labor transfer,and create conditions for introducing human capital into agricultural production.