中文摘要：

以便为分析一个二连接的灵活机器人操纵者的可靠性介绍一个新方法， Lagrange 动力学二连接的灵活机器人操纵者的微分方程被使用综合形式的方法和多身体系统动力学建立方法。由使用蒙特卡罗方法，动态参数的随机的样品价值被获得并且 Lagrange 动力学微分方程为揭示了他们的排水量，速度和加速的每随机的样品价值被解决。在这个基础上，动态压力和变丑被获得。由作为输出拿压力和变丑的最大的值，回答和随机作为输入数量取样动态参数的值，极值反应表面函数被建立。很多件随机的样品然后被使用蒙特卡罗方法获得然后可靠性被使用极值反应表面方法分析。结果证明极值反应表面方法是一个有效、快的可靠性分析方法与为二连接的灵活机器人操纵者高精确性。

英文摘要：

In order to present a new method for analyzing the reliability of a two-link flexible robot manipulator, Lagrange dynamics differential equations of the two-link flexible robot manipulator were established by using the integrated modal method and the multi-body system dynamics method. By using the Monte Carlo method, the random sample values of the dynamic parameters were obtained and Lagrange dynamics differential equations were solved for each random sample value which revealed their displacement, speed and acceleration. On this basis, dynamic stresses and deformations were obtained. By taking the maximum values of the stresses and the deformations as output responses and the random sample values of dynamic parameters as input quantities, extremum response surface functions were established. A number of random samples were then obtained by using the Monte Carlo method and then the reliability was analyzed by using the extremum response surface method. The results show that the extremum response surface method is an efficient and fast reliability analysis method with high-accuracy for the two-link flexible robot manipulator.