中文摘要：

为研究复杂天气对输电系统可靠性的影响,提出了一种基于单向S-粗规律和F-分解规律的输电系统可靠性评估方法。通过单向S-粗规律处理故障率和天气情况的不确定性,并建立基于复杂天气因素的输电线路可靠性模型,采用非序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行系统可靠性评估;运用F-分解规律形成干扰度指标,并分析不同天气组合对可靠性指标的影响。IEEE 30节点发输电系统的算例分析表明,考虑天气因素的元件可靠性参数模型能准确预测输电线路故障率,所提可靠性评估方法以客观数据（年气候天数）为基础,可以杜绝人为主观因素的影响,揭示了天气因素对系统可靠性的影响规律,评估结果更客观。

英文摘要：

A method of transmission system reliability evaluation based on the one direction S-rough law and F-decomposing law is proposed to study the effects of complex weather on the reliability of transmission system. The one direction S-rough law is applied to deal with the uncertainty of failure rate and weather. A transmission line reliability model based on complex weather factors is established and the non-sequential Monte Carlo method is applied to evaluate the system reliability. F-decomposing law is applied to develop the interference indices and the effects of different weather combinations on them are analyzed. Analysis for IEEE 30-bus power generation and transmission system shows that,the component reliability parameter model with the consideration of weather factors predicts the transmission line failure rate accurately and the proposed reliability evaluation method based on the objective data（yearly days of different weather conditions） is immune to the influence of human subjective factors,which reveals the influencing law of weather factors on the system reliability and makes the evaluation results more objective.