以黄河干流梯级水库补偿效益分配方案评价为例,尝试将可拓评价方法应用于水库补偿效益评价领域。通过建立多指标的可拓评价模型和评价指标体系,依次确定评价指标体系各等级的经典域、节域,以及待评物元,并针对可拓评价方法中存在的权重不能满足多方参与的不足,采用基于博弈论的综合赋权法确定权重,将评价结果与层次分析法及突变评价法评价结果进行比较。结果表明:与传统方法相比,可拓评价方法在待评方案同时缺水情形下,将增发电量方案设置为最优推荐方案,符合现实需要,满足目标要求,其方法合理、可行,是一种处理复杂的多指标评价问题的有效方法,不仅可以用于水库补偿效益评价,还可用于其他多指标决策问题评价领域研究,具有一定的普适性。
Extenics is a new subject to solve the contradictory problems.It studies the extensive possibility of things and the rules and methods of exploitation and innovation with formalized model.In recent years,Extenics,combed with other related fields,has produced the Extenics engineering theory and methods for information,control,evaluation,management and cognitive science,and also a series of theoretical finding and application results.Therefore,Extenics can be applied in the evaluation domain because of its properties of quantitative description of the variability about things.Because of the different run tasks,functions and subordinate relationships between upstream to downstream,there are no the balanced interests related to the reservoirs along the Yellow River during the actual operation process.Aiming at this issue,many scholars have used the optimization and simulation models to study compensation benefits of the reservoirs along the Yellow River by considering comprehensively the power supply,water supply and flood control,and many distribution solutions have been gotten.How to evaluate the various distribution programs of compensation benefits is a practical problem that needs to be solved urgently,not only directly related to implementing the programs,but also related to promoting the water regulation program of the Yellow River.In this paper,a case study on the compensation benefits of the reservoirs along the Yellow River is carried out.Based on the Extenics and the substance-element analysis,a multi-index extension evaluation model and its index system is developed,the various levels of the classical field,controlled field and substance element needing to be evaluated are determined,the game theory is used to calculate the weights of evaluation indexes.The results are compared with those of the AHP and catastrophe evaluation.On which six distribution programs of the compensation benefits of reservoirs along the Yellow River are analyzed,calculated and evaluated,and the optimal program is selected.The res