中文摘要：

依据环境经济学理论，运用极值边界分析（the extreme bounds analysis, EBA）模型，拓展了Kaya 恒等式，利用中国30 个省际区域2001~2010 年的面板数据，实证研究中国省际区域人均碳排放量“稳健性”的影响因素。结果表明，地方财政决算支出、产业结构、能源效率、能源消费结构、能源价格、客运量等6 个因素对中国人均碳排放量具有抗干扰的“稳健性”显著影响，并根据实证结论提出了一些政策建议，如调整产业结构，控制高碳产业发展；优化能源消费结构，积极发展新能源和可再生能源；发展循环经济开发清洁技术，提高能源利用效率；提倡低碳生活，提倡低碳生活方式。这些建议为政府制定环境保护与经济发展政策提供经验证据和决策参考。

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of China＇s economy, China＇s total carbon emissions in 2011 have exceeded American＇s and claimed the top spot in the world. The study on the influence factors of China＇s carbon emissions has been a hot international issue for a long time. Since China is currently in a critical period of national economic transformation development, it is particularly important to handle the relationship between carbon emissions reduction and economic development. The studies about the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth have been performed from different perspectives. And some influence factors of carbon emissions have been proposed including the factors to increase carbon emissions, to reduce carbon emissions, which are regional and temporary factors, or long-term ＂robust＂ influence factors. Based on the theory of environmental economics, we employ the model of the extreme bounds analysis （EBA） and expand the Kaya identity; using the panel data of 30 provincial regions, and empirically analyzes the factors which have ＂robust＂ effects on per capita carbon emissions in provincial regions. And thus a general rule has been revealed between China＇s regional environmental pollution and economic growth. That is, the six factors, local financial spending, industrial structure, energy efficiency, energy consumption structure, energy prices and passenger capacity, have anti-interference, robust, and significant impacts on per capita carbon emissions. Therefore, when developing economic, China should be fully aware of the impact of carbon emissions in order to achieve sustainable development. Based on these results, we propose some suggestions on which governments make policy of environmental protection and economic development. The policy implications of this study contain four aspects： 1） to adjust the industrial structure and limit the development of high-carbon industries; 2） to optimize energy consumption structure, to develop new energy, and to renewable ener