依据空间计量经济学的相关理论,运用稳健MM估计的EBA(异常值检验的极值边界分析)模型,采用中国30个省际区域2002~2012年的面板数据,实证研究中国东部、中部、西部地区R&D强度区位分布条件的"稳健性(Robust)"影响因素。结果表明:我国东部、中部、西部各地区的R&D强度存在差异,且其影响因素也不尽相同。R&D强度较高的东部地区,科技水平、市场规模、固定资产投资、要素禀赋等4个因素对中国R&D强度具有抗干扰的"稳健性"影响;R&D强度中等的中部地区,3个"稳健性"影响因素是政府公共政策、科技水平和要素禀赋;而对于R&D强度较低的西部地区,技术创新和要素禀赋对提高R&D强度作用具有"稳健性"。由此揭示我国R&D强度的发展规律以及各区域间的差异性,并根据实证结论提出一些政策建议,为各地区制定科技政策目标和实施方案提供经验证据和决策参考。
According to related theories of Spatial Econometrics, we apply MM Extreme Bounds Analysis model to analyze robust factors of regional disparities on China's R&D location distribution, based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China (except Tibet). The results show that R&D intensity and its determinants are different in the east, the middle and the west areas. In east areas of higher R&D intensity, the "robustness" factors are the technological level, market scale, fixed asset investment and factor endowment. In the middle areas of moderate R&D intensity, the determinants are the governmental public policy, technological level and factor endowment. In west regions of lower R&D intensity, technological innovation and factor endowment have significant influence on improving the R&D intensity. The above analysis reveals the laws of development and disparities of R&D intensity. We conclude by providing some corresponding policy suggestions as theoretical and practical basis for different areas.