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Determination of Scheduled Travel Time for a Fixed Transit Route Based on Multistate Model
  • ISSN号：1671-1637
  • 期刊名称：《交通运输工程学报》
  • 时间：0
  • 分类：U492.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理;交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]
  • 作者机构：[1]State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240 ’ China, [2]Transportation Research Center, School of Naval Architecture , Ocean & Civil Engineering ,Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
  • 相关基金：Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71101109) ’ Key Project of Shanghai Soft Science Research Program (GrantNo.15692105400) and Humanities and Social Sciences Program of the Ministiy of Education’ China(Grant No.15YJCZH148).
作者： Shukai Chen[1,2], Daniel(Jian) Sun[1,2], Rui Xue[2]
关键词： scheduled, TRAVEL, TIME, multistate, model, TRAVEL, TIME, DISTRIBUTION, GENETIC, algorithm
中文摘要：

In order to provide the guideline for bus drivers to adjust speed to minimize scheduled deviation’ the method for setting bus scheduled travel time is proposed. Firstly’ multistate model is introduced to fit historical travel time data and identify different ser^^ice states. Based on the calibrated travel time distribution parameters’ an optimization model is proposed ’ followed by a Monte Carlo ( MC) simulation based genetic algorithm ( GA) procedure to obtain the optimal scheduled time. A case study from a fixed bus route from Shenzhen is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The sensitivity analysis is conducted to study the effects of parameters setting on optimal slack time for each segment. The results show that multistate model fits travel time under peak hours better than Lognormal distribution’ and the length of scheduled travel time basically reflects travel time reliability.

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期刊信息
  • 《交通运输工程学报》
  • 北大核心期刊（2011版）
  • 主管单位:中华人民共和国教育部
  • 主办单位:长安大学
  • 主编：陈荫三
  • 地址：西安市南二环路中段
  • 邮编：710064
  • 邮箱：jygc@chd.edu.cn
  • 电话：029-82334388
  • 国际标准刊号：ISSN：1671-1637
  • 国内统一刊号：ISSN：61-1369/U
  • 邮发代号:52-195
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  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,波兰哥白尼索引,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国工程索引,美国剑桥科学文摘,英国科学文摘数据库,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊（2004版）,中国北大核心期刊（2008版）,中国北大核心期刊（2011版）,中国北大核心期刊（2014版）
  • 被引量:13453