中文摘要：

利用故障树分析（FaultTreeAnalysis）技术对堆垛机进行可靠性分析时，因缺乏数据而无法准确获得部件失效概率。为此，结合专家的语言判断和模糊集理论（FuzzySetTheory），提出了一种基于故障树分析技术和模糊集理论的堆垛机故障诊断方法。该方法根据堆垛机操作人员的经验，获取专家在堆垛机部件失效概率上的主观评判；采用模糊集理论将专家的主观语言表述模糊化处理，转化成客观的失效可能性数值；结合堆垛机主接触器模块故障诊断实例，验证了该方法的可行性。结果表明：该方法可以有效解决因数据缺乏导致部件失效概率不确定问题，为堆垛机的故障诊断和维护决策提供了帮助。

英文摘要：

Due to the lack of historical data, the probability of assembly failure cannot be obtained accurately when fault tree analysis （FTA） technique was used to analyze the reliability of palletizer. Therefore, a fault diagnosis method based on FTA and fuzzy set theory was proposed by incorporating experts＇ judgments and fuzzy set theory. The experts＇ subjective judgments were obtained on the basis of operators＇ experiences; then by fuzzy set theory to transform the experts＇ subjective expressions into the objective values of failure probability. The feasibility of the proposed method was verified by a case of diagnosing the fault of the main contactor module in a palletizer. The results showed that： the proposed method could effectively resolve the uncertainty problem of assembly failure probability caused by data deficiency and provide a support for the fault diagnosis and maintenance decision making for palletizers.