中文摘要：

运用全球贸易分析模型（GTAP）,就跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）对中国经济可能产生的影响进行定量评估。模拟结果表明,TPP的建立对中国进出口贸易的影响有限,但会恶化中国的贸易条件,造成GDP和社会福利的下降。就具体产业部门而言,农业和食品加工业的产出将会减少。中国应依托＂一带一路＂,积极布局＂一带一路＂周边及沿线,构建全方位多领域的开放格局和国际合作新框架;加快实施国内自贸区战略,以开放倒逼改革。

英文摘要：

The article uses the global trade analysis model（GTAP）to quantitatively assess the possible impact of the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement（TPP）on China′s economy.The simulation results show that the impact of the establishment of TPP on China′s import and export trade is limited,but it will worsen the conditions of China′s trade,resulting in the decline of GDP and social welfare.As far as the specific industrial sector is concerned,the output of agricultural and food processing industries will be reduced.Chinese should rely on ＂ The Belt and Road,active layout of The Belt and Road＂ around and along,construct a new framework of open pattern and international cooperation in all fields;and speed up the implementation of the FTA Strategy in China to accelerate reform through opening up.