中文摘要：

基于大庆地区1978、1988、1992、1996、2001年5个时段的MSS和TM影像，获取20余年不同时期的土地利用景观变化信息，以GIS技术为数据集成分析平台，利用景观组分转移概率矩阵分析探讨了大庆地区23年来景观的动态变化；应用马尔可夫理论，对大庆地区未来几十年景观动态变化过程进行了模拟分析和定量预测。结果表明：草地不断退化，湿地大面积减少，沙化和盐碱化日趋严重；大庆地区2010年后景观类型变化的趋势是耕地、林地、盐碱地、沙地和建设用地在逐年增加，草地、湿地和水域逐年减少，这种变化将持续很长时间，直到相对稳定状态时，耕地占53．45％，林地5．89％，草地12．25％，湿地7．67％，盐碱地13．56％，沙地0．71％，水域1．01％．建设用地5．46％。

英文摘要：

Based on the MSS and TM images in five periods of 1978, 1988, 1996 and 2001 respectively in Daqing region, land use landscape change information was gained for more than 20 years. Landscape dynamic changes for 23 years in Daqing region were discussed by using landscape components transfer probability matrix, which was based on data integration analysis of GIS technology. The landscape dynamic change process in Daqing region for the coming decades was simulated and quantitatively predicted by using the theory of Markov Chain. The results showed that （ 1 ） grassland was degenerated in quality, wetland was reduced in area, desertification and salinization were in worsening before, （2） cultivated land, forest land, saline-alkali land, sand and construction land were increased year by year after 2010 in Daqing region. The trend of landscape type change will last a long time until it reaches a relatively stable state. Cultivated land will have accounted for 53.45% , woodland 5.89% , grassland 12.25% , wetland 7.67% , saline-alkali land 13.56% , sand 0. 71% , waters 1.01% and construction 5.46% by that time.