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中文摘要：
通过VAR等模型实证分析1985-2005年农业贷款、农业财政支出、农业集体投资和农户投资对农民收入的影响，发现农业贷款和农业财政支出并未显著促进农民收入增长，也不存在农业贷款、农业财政支出与农民收入间的Granger因果关系。由于农业和工业经济周期的不一致性，以及支农资金在传导过程中耗损、分流严重，最终导致农贷与财政支农资金的低效率。计量结果的潜在原因包括农贷与农业财政支出规模不足以实现农业部门的结构与规模经济效应。提高农业投资收入效应的根本出路是寻找财政政策与农业信贷政策之间的最佳组合，实现财政支农与农业贷款在增量有效率的农业生产性投入上的最大化分解。
英文摘要：
A VAR-model authentic analysis of the effects of agricultural loan, financial expenditure, collective investment and household investment on the farmer＇s income between 1985 and 2005 shows no prominent growth of the farmer＇ s income promoted by agricultural loan and financial expenditure or Granger relation between agricultural loan and financial expenditure and the farmer＇s income. Since the circulating period of agriculture differs from that of industry, the consumption and serious redistribution in the course of transfer resulted in a low efficiency of using agriculture-supporting funds. In order to better the income-increasing effect of agricultural investment, an essential way to follow is to seek a better incorporation between financial policy and policy of agricultural loan so as to maximally resolve agricultural finance and loan in productive investment of agriculture which may effectively increase production.
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