中文摘要：

区域土地利用变化模拟是LUCC研究的核心内容之一。以地处湘西北岩溶山区的张家界市永定区为研究对象,针对目前国际上广泛使用的CLUE-S土地利用变化模型,通过在传统Logistic回归模型中引入空间自相关变量,对CLUE-S模型的空间分析模块进行了改进。实验与分析结果表明,改进的空间分析模块拟合优度、拟合精度都有较大的提高。耕地、林地及居民点工矿用地的拟合优度（ROC值）分别从0.784、0.821和0.741提高到0.827、0.875和0.838。在此基础之上,采用改进的CLUE-S模型,模拟和预测了研究地区2005～2020年的土地利用时空变化。研究结果说明对CLUE-S模型空间分析模块的改进在一定意义上是合理的,同时也可以为永定区及其相似地区的土地利用规划决策提供更为科学的依据。

英文摘要：

Land use/land cover change（LUCC） is an important content of geographical research on global change today,while spatial simulation on land use change is one of the key content of LUCC.In recent years,CLUE-S（The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent） model has been used widely in the world.This paper mainly aimed at CLUE-S model to improve the model in spatial analysis module by incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic logistic model.Meanwhile,Yongding County in Zhangjiajie city,which is one of the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan Province,was selected as the research area.By using the improved CLUE-S model,this paper simulated and analysed regional land use change in Yongding County.All driving factors such as distance to town,distance to river,distance to road,population density,altitude,slope and aspect were produced with ArcGIS spatial analysis tools.Then the weighting coefficient of every land use type was analysed with SPSS13.0.The results indicated that improved spatial analysis module of CLUE-S model showed better goodness of fitting and higher accuracy of fitting.The distribution of land use types of cultivated land,forest land and residence land areas under the ROC curves（AUC） were increased to 0.827,0.875 and 0.838 respectively.For a better understanding of the future land use change in the region,the improved CLUE-S model is further put into application to predict spatial distribution of land use change from 2005 to 2020.It is argued that the improved CLUE-S model based on Autologistic method is reasonable to some degree.At the same time,these types of analysis can provide valuable information for government decisions on land use management in Yongding County and similar areas.