中文摘要：

人类活动导致的土地利用变化及其碳效应在区域及全球碳循环研究中具有举足轻重的作用。以位于青海高原东部的海东市为研究区,在探讨土地利用碳循环系数的基础上,预测海东市2020年低碳情景下的土地利用结构,并运用CLUE-S模型模拟了海东市土地利用低碳优化空间格局,然后对比分析低碳情景与规划情景下,海东市2020年土地利用格局的差异。研究表明：1尽管低碳情景下研究区域水浇地和旱地持续减少,但相对于规划情景,优质耕地的流失量减少。2有林地稳定增加,疏林草地缓慢增加,区域固碳能力逐步提升。3建设用地适度扩张,增加幅度小于规划情景,其中城镇用地相对于规划情景碳排放减少14.03万t。低碳视角的区域土地利用结构调整与空间布局优化,为区域土地利用科学规划与管理提供决策支持。

英文摘要：

Land use change and its carbon effects by human activities play an important role in researches on regional and global carbon cycle. Taking Haidong city as a study area, which is located in the eastern part of Qinghai Plateau, this paper firstly calculated carbon cycle coefficients of each land use type based on local carbon mechanism. Then by linear programming method, an optimization model was constructed to estimate land use quantitative structure under low-carbon scenario in 2020. Finally, CLUE-S model was used to simulate land use spatial allocation of the study area in low-carbon and land-use planning scenarios. Through comparing the two land use simulation maps in 2020 of Haidong city under different scenarios,four conclusions can be drawn：（1） Both irrigated and no-irrigated land will continue to decline under low- carbon scenario from 2009 to 2020, and the amount of high- quality farmland loss based on low-carbon emission will be less than that in the land use overall planning scenario;（2） Forest land would increase stably and grassland will expand slowly under low- carbon scenario, which results in a continuous increase in regional carbon sequestration;（3） Both urban land and rural residential land under low- carbon scenario will increase to a certain degree, while the total area of construction land under low- carbon scenario is less than that under land-use planning scenario. Therefore, the carbon emission from construction land under low-carbon scenario is less than that under land-use planning scenario. For example, the area of urban land under low- carbon scenario will be 974.61 ha lower than that under land- use planning scenario, that is, the carbon emission under low-carbon scenario is 14.03×104t lower than that under land-use planning scenario;（4） Compared with the planning scenario, land use patterns of low- carbon scenario show an overall upward trend in carbon sinks, which would increase carbon stocks of 7.77 × 104 t, decrease carbon emissions of 31.99 × 104 t. The result