以三江平原1959-2013年降水量数据为基础,采用逐一增减法和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,研究了三江平原近几十年来年降水量的长期演变趋势和突变特征。结果表明:三江平原年降水量下降趋势特征不明显,气候倾向率为-0.5mm/a,年际逐一增减对降水量趋势影响突出,验证了特殊年份降水量对总体变化趋势具有较大的影响;三江平原年降水量可分为1986年以前的下降期,1986-1998的上升期和1998年以后的下降期等3个阶段,突变点分别为1960、1981、1994和2008年。
The recursive increase-decrease method and Mann-Kendall test method were used to analyze the evolution trend and abrupt changes of annual precipitation in the Sanjiang Plain from 1959 to 2013 .The results showed that the downtrend was not significant and the climate tendency rate was -5 .0 mm per ten years ,the year increasing and decreasing one by one had a significant to the pre‐cipitation trend ,which verified the precipitation in the special years can greatly influence the overall trend ;the annual precipitation can divide into three stage :the decline period before 1986 ,the incline period between 1986 and 1998 and decline period after 1998 . The abrupt change points were 1960 ,1981 ,1994 and 2008 ,respectively .