中文摘要：

综合运用灰色关联技术和协同学方法，以江西省城市群为例，在对其城市群协同发展进行了灰色关联分析的基础上，建构了城市群协同演进的非线性微分成因模型，并通过数值模拟得到其系统发展的序参量。灰色关联分析发现，江西省城市群作为一个非线性的复杂大系统，其形成与演化受到众多因素的共同作用，而且它们之间不是简单的因果线性关系，具有相关性、非均匀性、不可逆性等；因子模型进一步揭示，对江西省城市群协同演化起支配作用的序参量是工业化率、城镇固定资产投资占全社会固定资产投资比重和单位面积的公路通车里程数，它们是城市群形成与演化中的关键动力因子。显然，模拟结果比较符合江西省城市群发展的实际，因此，这种非线性的综合处理方法可以进一步推广。

英文摘要：

The paper employs the synergism theory and grey correlative analysis to analyze the inner nonlinear relationships among factors of urban agglomeration, and build a factor model that can reveal the causal-resuh in the system of urban agglomeration. The results by grey correlative analysis show that urban agglomeration is an open and dissipative system, and it is affected by many factors, which are not simple linear causal-resuh relationships but relevant, non-uniformity, the irreversibility. And the factor model further reveals that the dominant parameters of urban agglomeration in Jiangxi Province are the rate of industrialization, urban fixed asset investment proportion of the total investment in fixed assets, and the highway mileage on per unit area, which are key driving factor in urban agglomeration formation and evolution. Obviously, the simulated results are corresponding with the practice development of urban agglomeration in Jiangxi Province, so the nonlinear systematical methods can be applied to analyze the mechanism of urban agglomeration development.