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中文摘要：
以建立给水处理过程的风险分析方法为目标，提出了适用于传统给水处理工艺的氯消毒概率机理模型．模型既考虑氯消毒过程中有机物、余氯、氨氮、溴离子之间化学反应，又考虑水厂混凝、沉淀和过滤工艺过程中的物理和生物作用．典型水厂的现场监测数据表明，该模型能够较好地模拟水厂中高锰酸盐指数、氨氮以及4种三卤甲烷的浓度概率分布．Monte Carlo模拟的结果表明，与我国城市供水水质标准相比，该水厂高锰酸盐指数和单种三卤甲烷的超标概率极低，但总三卤甲烷的超标概率略高，约为2．3％．
英文摘要：
Aiming at a method of risk analysis for drinking water treatment, a statistical conceptual model was developed to simulate the chlorination disinfection processes in a conventional waterworks. The model involved the chemical reactions among organic matter, chlorine residuals, ammonia nitrogen and bromide as well as the physical and biological mechanisms in the coagulation-flocculation, sedimentation and post-chlorination processes. Field data from a typical waterworks demonstrated that the model could well predict the probability distribution of the concentration of permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen and four kinds of trihalomethanes （THMs）. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the violation probability of permanganate index and each THM of the effluent of the waterworks is extremely low as compared with the water quality standards for urban water supply in China, however that of the total THMs is relatively higher and about 2.3%.
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