中文摘要：

为分析西北太平洋（含南中国海域）热带气旋对中国沿海商船航线影响频次的时间和空间分布规律,利用CMA提供的1949—2008年热带气旋最佳路径资料,采用统计和趋势分析等方法进行分析研究.结果表明,热带气旋对中国沿海商船航线的影响频次存在较明显的盛衰周期性波动,其中盛期持续时间（6年左右）只有衰期持续时间（12年左右）的一半左右;每年8月西北太平洋热带气旋对中国沿海商船航线的影响最为频繁,7月份所生成的热带气旋对中国沿海商船航线造成影响的可能性最大.热带气旋对中国沿海商船航线的影响主要集中在海南至台湾海峡一带沿海水域,其中影响次数最多的为海南省以东18°N—21°N沿海水域,影响频次最高区域有明显的向北漂移的趋势.

英文摘要：

The best track data of tropical cyclone（TC） provided by CMA over the northern west Pacific including the South China Sea from 1949 to 2008 were employed to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of TCs＇ impact frequency on sea routes of China coastal areas.Results show that TCs＇ impact frequency has obvious periodic fluctuation.The duration of peaks（about 6 years） is only a half of that of troughs（about 12 years）.During August,TCs have the most frequent impacts on sea routes of China coastal areas.However,the TCs created in July have the greatest possible impact.The affected area is distributed in costal area from Hainan to Taiwan Straits,especially in east area of Hainan between 18°N—21°N.The most frequent area has the obvious tendency of moving toward north.