欢迎您！东篱公司
退出
-
申报数据库
-
立项数据库
-
成果数据库
-
项目获奖数据库
中文摘要：
在国际紧急灾害数据库的支持下,得到了中国在1980-2008年间发生的年洪水灾害发生次数、年单次洪水灾害经济损失极大值和年洪水灾害经济总损失3个统计指标;根据复合极值理论,利用泊松-对数正态复合极值模型对洪水灾害经济损失进行了分析。研究结果表明：（1）洪水灾害经济损失遵从对数正态分布;（2）单次极值经济损失与年经济总损失具有高度相关性;（3）复合极值方法可有效地用于洪水极值重现期的重建;（4）与传统的经验频率计算方法相比,该方法能克服因资料年限短、数据不足而造成的洪灾重现周期估算困难。
英文摘要：
Based on the EM-DAT（OFDA/CRED） emergency disaster database,three samples of statistical data,including the number of flood disasters,the maximum economic loss in a single flood disaster and the total economic loss in floods were obtained annually from 1980 to 2008 in China.And then,according to compound extreme distribution,Poisson-lognormal compound extreme model was utilized to analyze economic losses of flood disaster.The results indicate that：（1）economic losses of flood disaster is subject to log-normal distribution;（2） a high correlation exists between single extreme economic losses and the total annual economic loss;（3） compound extreme value method is highly effective in reconstruction of return period of extreme flood.（4） compared with the traditional experience method of calculating the frequency,the method can overcome the difficulties of estimating return period due to insufficient information on data and year number.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
期刊信息
位置：