城市居民依赖于私家车的出行方式是城市蔓延的典型特征之一,对汽车消费是否加剧了城市蔓延进行实证检验,具有重要的现实意义。本文结合私人汽车消费影响城市蔓延的理论分析,实证检验了我国2010-2012年247个地级市私人汽车消费对城市蔓延的具体影响。研究结果表明:(1)私人汽车消费显著地加剧了城市蔓延;(2)城市蔓延的交通影响因素在不同等级城市间有不同体现;(3)私人汽车消费对城市蔓延的影响呈现出倒U型关系。在此基础上,得出了一些相应的政策启示:(1)根据城市的增长边界,控制特大城市的私人汽车消费数量;(2)未采取汽车限购政策的城市应谨慎推行,杜绝突袭式限购;(3)适度提高私人汽车的出行成本,大力改善和优化公共交通系统。
One of the typical characteristics of urban sprawl is that urban residents are relying on private car using. There is a great practical significance of testing whether private car consumption has intensified urban sprawl. Through a theoretical analysis of which private car consumption has an effect on urban sprawl, we test real impacts on 247 prefecture-level cities in China during 2010-2012. The results show that: (1)the private car consumption significantly intensifies the urban sprawl; (2)traffic factors of urban sprawl in different-level cities reflect in different ways; (3) the effect of private car consumption on urban sprawl presents as an inverted U-shaped curve. Based on our results, we get some corresponding policy implications : ( 1 ) limiting the private car consumption in mega-eity according to the UGB; (2)cities, which have not used the restriction on car consumption, should be implemented prudently and exclude the sudden restriction; (3) increasing the trip cost of using private car and optimizing the public transport system.