中文摘要：

耕地资源是保障粮食安全的重要基础。近年来，在比较优势作用下，粮食生产区位变化明显，给耕地的粮食生产保障功能带来影响。本文以粮食生产大省江苏为例，考察了区位变迁下的粮食生产耕地资源依赖变动情况。脱钩分析和计量分析都能够得到：江苏省苏南、苏中、苏北地区粮食生产耕地依赖存在区位差异，苏北粮食生产对耕地的依赖性远高于苏中和苏南。因此，随着粮食生产重心的逐步“北去”，江苏省省域层面粮食生产的耕地资源依赖性会逐步增强，经济因素主导的粮食生产变迁并非完全合理。因此，为保障区域粮食安全，政府应在认清区域禀赋差异的基础上，适度推进粮食生产北上。同时提升粮食生产技术水平，拓展粮源供给渠道，缓解变迁中禀赋差异带来的不利影响。

英文摘要：

Cultivated land resources serve as an important basis for ensuring grain security. In recent years, the location of grain production has changed significantly because of the change of comparative advantage, which influences the functions of grain security of cultivated land. Taking Jiangsu Province, a main grain producing province, as an example, this paper studies the change of cultivated land dependence under the location changes. Through decoupling analysis and quantitative analysis, this study shows the differences of the dependence of cultivated land for grain production in Southern, Central and Northern areas of Jiangsu Province. And the dependence of cultivated land in Northern Jiangsu is much stronger than that in Central Jiangsu and Southern Jiangsu. As the Center of grain production gradually moves to Northern Jiangsu, the dependence of cultivated land for grain production at Jiangsu provincial level will gradually increase. The location evolution of grain production under the dominance by economic factors is not entirely reasonable. Therefore, to ensure the regional grain security, the government should properly promote the grain production in the north on the basis of a clear understanding of regional differences in endowments. At the same time, the government should improve the technology and the level of grain production, expand grain supply channels as well as alleviate the adverse effects from endowment differences in the process of evolution.